There are a few reasons why I want to make posts like this, but they can be best summarized as the feeling of helplessness when being able to legitimately say “This is exactly what I said would happen!” and know that people just have to take my word for it. There are a few times when this has come to pass, and I want that to change. I want to be able to point to that moment when say, “Called it,” and to have the humility to admit, “Okay, I was super wrong,” when my foresight falls flat. With that out of the way, this is my first “Isaiah Predicts” post, and it’s none too soon.
To cut to the quick, rather than string along the inevitable point—no one enjoys having the meat of discussion withheld just to draw out a long line of… Trying again, here it is: I think that no only will Donald Trump win the race to be the 47th president, I will go a step further and say that he will win the popular vote. There it is. That’s the whole thing. Stick around to learn the nitty gritty details, but there is no need to put up with these ramblings any longer. Therefore, only the truly curious—or self-afflicting—need go further.
My first supporting point to attest to this belief is the fact that Donald Trump has always underperformed in election polling. As of today, many polling sources have Trump and Harris neck-and-neck, with one of them ahead by a mere 1-3 points, but the one ahead isn’t consistent across the polls. In the 2020 race, the day of election polling had Biden up on Trump around 5-8 points. Allegedly, pollsters have tried to assume Trump’s over-performance in the polls; but there are still some problems that I’m not sure have been sorted. The two largest being: A) more people are willing to vocalize support for Trump than in previous years, meaning they are more passionate; B) it is very hard to assume accurately a number that you don’t have. The truth of the matter is Trump’s gained a lot of support since he was silenced, indicted, and shot. I don’t know if he has ever had more support.
Trump is not the only factor here, the second factor is Kamala Harris herself. I think that Kamala’s support may be overblown. Yes, there are a lot of people who are going to vote for her; but it would be better to say that there are a lot of people voting against Trump. This is Trump’s double-edged sword: people have very strong feelings about the man. Kamala Harris, meanwhile, has very little enthusiasm. There are Democrat voters who are voting for the Democrat candidate, there are anti-Trump voters voting against Trump, the only group that she is relying on that are actually excited to vote for her are progressive voters. That’s it. That’s all of the people voting for her. The truth of the matter is that she does not resonate with people. If you want proof, explore social media and see how long it takes to organically discover a Kamala Haris meme that doesn’t include or refer to Trump, than do the same for Trump.
An argument could be made that the anti-Trump vote may be enough, after all, it was in 2020, but I don’t think the math is the same as in 2020. The math for that election year was the following: pandemic-induced recession+Black Lives Matter riots+social media lockdown of information+widespread mail-in voting. That math is not the same. In fact, I think the loss of locking down social media’s grip on information dissemination and the lack of prevalence of mail-in voting alone may be enough to completely shift the direction of this election compared to 2020. Avoiding the prickly issue of voter fraud, the simple truth of the matter is that wide-spread mail-in voting resulted in huge voter turnout that has never happened before. Ballot harvesting presented an opportunity, mostly utilized by the Democrat party, to acquire votes from people who are otherwise not engaged in politics and would’t have made the time to vote in-person. A lot of places still have mail-in voting and ballot harvesting, but this time it’s not as significant nor as exclusively sided. We will have to wait and see how the mail-in vote goes, and if it plays as significant of a shift as it did in the previous election.
I think a shift that has happened and will have significant impact to increase Donald Trump’s numbers is the country’s priorities. When Trump ran for election in 2016 and again in 2020, the US-Mexico border, domestic job creation, and stabilizing global conflicts were not only staples of his campaign but major voting priorities to Republicans. This time around, those are not just Republican priorities, those are the most important issues to voters across the board. Democrats are trying to increase the prominence of abortion on a national level this election cycle, but it simply is not a high priority for voters and Trump’s already made it clear that he doesn’t think it’s a federal issue anymore anyway. Trump has not changed his political priorities, but the American people have, and it is now more in line with Trump than Kamala.
A final note as to why I think Trump will win, not just the electoral but the popular vote is the following: it will be the most hilarious thing that has happened on a national level in my lifetime. There is a certain cosmic irony that will play out if Trump, after he is accused of being Hitler, after he has been found guilty of a crime no one can explain, after he has been the target of assassination and even shot, then rises once again to the presidency and becomes the second president to win two non-consecutive terms. Love him or hate him, it would be absolutely hilarious! The icing on this cosmic comedy cake? Kamala Harris, once again, grasping for the next rung up the ladder of success but this time falls short because for the first time, favoritism by the elite and manipulation of those in power was not enough to overcome her inherent lack of political skill.
Now the real question, will I be right? I am eager to find out. If nothing else, I can say definitively the same thing I have said for years: it is the most exciting time to be into politics. I used to take this all much more seriously, but I think it’s important to remember not to. GK Chesterton once said, “The angels can fly because they can take themselves lightly.” It’s important to remember that while it is humorous, and while it is important, this election is not the most important thing. For me? I’d say the most important thing is one’s relationship with God. The second, is how we are use His gifts to serve Him and those around us. In the end, who wins or loses this election does not impact that. I could be wrong, very wrong, about how tonight goes, but I will not lose sleep over it one way or the other, and that’s for one important reason: no matter who my president will be tomorrow, I know who my King is today.